What Are The Chances Of A Century Break In A Snooker Match?

Elsewhere on this site, you can read about the chances of a 147 being achieved by a player in a snooker match. As you might imagine, the chances of a player getting a century break are a lot higher, largely on account of the fact that the specifics are a lot lower than they are when trying to get a 147. In a 147, players needs to pot the black any time that they are able to in accordance with the rules of the sport, whereas when going for a 147 break there is just the requirement to put whatever balls will help you as you go on the journey to notching up 100 points on your go.

A century break is achieved when a player scores 100 points or more in a single visit to the table without missing a shot or committing a foul. In professional snooker, century breaks are common, especially among top-ranked players who possess exceptional skill and consistency. The likelihood of a century break depends on various factors and on average, professional players achieve century breaks in approximately 1 out of every 10 frames. However, it is important to note that these statistics can vary depending on the skill level of the players and the match format.

Centuries Are Tricky To Do In Competitions

In high-profile tournaments, where the competition is intense and the pressure is elevated, the frequency of century breaks is likely to be lower than in matches featuring players of lower skill levels or during practice sessions. This is entirely down to the pressure in place in a major competition. The chances of a century break in a snooker match are significantly higher than achieving a 147 break, but it still requires exceptional skill, strategic shot selection and precise positional play to consistently reach the century mark in a single visit to the table, which is why it isn’t as common as you might think.

That isn’t the same as saying that it doesn’t happen. If a player is good enough to make it to one of the many snooker competitions that take place in the United Kingdom throughout the year, you can bet that they are good enough to make a break of 100 or more. It is just that doing so in a sterile environment is one thing, but doing it when the lights are on you and there are people in the audience watching everything you do is entirely different. With this in mind, it is worth having a look at a specific competition in order to get a sense of how often century breaks might be achieved.

The World Championships

In our article about the chances of getting a 147 in a snooker match, we chose to look at the World Championship at the Crucible because it is considered to be the pinnacle of snooker in the United Kingdom. There are more than 40 professional tournaments that take place throughout the UK over the course of a year, but none of them have the same level of prestige as the World Championship, which is why it is such a good competition to be able to concentrate on.

The Table above takes a look at the years that at least one 147 was achieved, alongside the number of century breaks that happened that year and the number of frames played.

Over the course of the 12 years in which at least one 147 was managed by one of the players in the World Championship, 6,762 frames were played. There were 14 147s, but 722 century breaks. In other words, there was the equivalent of a 147 every 483 frames, whilst there was a century break the equivalent of every 9.36 frames. That fits in with the 1 in 10 stat that we mentioned in our introduction to this article.

Centuries Over The Years

The World Championship has taken place at the Crucible theatre every year since 1977. As a result, we have a wealth of data to be able to look at when it comes to how players have got on in the tournament. Indeed, there is an argument to be made that we have too much information available to us, so it is all but impossible to be able to track exactly how many frames have been played each year between 1977 and 2023. Instead, it is best to take an average based on the number of frames that we know were played during the years when a 147 was achieved at the Crucible.

The table above takes a look at the number of centuries that were scored during the course of each World Championship since the competition began being played at the Crucible.

Between 1977 and 2023, then, we know that there were 2,287 century breaks achieved in the World Snooker Championship at the Crucible. Using the information that we have from the number of frames played in a year when a 147 was played, we can assume that an average of 25,921 frames took place. That means that a century will have been achieved by a player roughly every 11.33 frames. As you can see, that is a little over our 1 in 10 that was surmised at the start, but then it is also worth noting from the table that the number of centuries managed has gone up year-on-year.

Century Betting

If you’re thinking of betting on a snooker match, one of the things that you might consider betting on is whether or not there will be a century scored in the match that you’re betting on. There are options open to you on that front, allowing you to bet on the match in general containing a century break as well as the individual players achieving one. If you’re thinking of doing it then you’ll want to have a look at the form of the players, as well as their history when it comes to scoring centuries. Ronnie O’Sullivan, for example, would’ve been a good bet over some lesser snooker players.

It is still something of an achievement for a player to notch up a century, with that being even more the case if it isn’t something that they have a long history of. That is why looking at the likes of their history around the subject matter is important. You will also want to consider the odds offered by your bookmaker of choice, given the fact that you now know that a century is likely to be achieved every 1 in 10 frames or so. Odds lower than 10/1 are, therefore, not particularly brilliant value and that might give you pause for thought before placing the bet in question.