If you’re a football betting fan, then you may want to consider the over / under 4.5 goals market. It can often carry higher odds and when you get it just right it can generate good returns. Yet it is ideal to know what it’s all about before proceeding with a bet on it.
The main match bet itself focuses on how many goals you believe will be scored in a football match. It doesn’t matter which team or teams score them, as it relates to the overall total. Let’s say that Manchester United is set to face off against Arsenal in a Premier League match. These are two of the top-tier teams in the league, so does that mean many goals will be scored?
Maybe so, as they’re both effective on the pitch. Yet it could also mean that they have excellent defending skills as well, so they can just as easily halt any potential goal attempts. This is the quandary that you need to consider when betting on this type of market.
In terms of the over 4.5 goals market, a wager on it means that you believe at least five goals will be scored in a game. If you think there will be a high-scoring football match about to take place but you are unsure who might win then a wager on this market could be ideal.
Under 4.5 goals says there will be four goals or less in the game, however that comes about. You can also bet on over/under 4.5 goals for individual teams or within each half in different markets.
Understanding The Over / Under 4.5 Goals Market
Any over market, or indeed under market, focuses on the goals scored within the full 90 minutes of a football match. This means that should extra time come into play, goals scored within that time won’t be counted. Furthermore, it does not apply to penalty shootouts, should these be the end result of a match.
Over 4.5 goals may seem like an odd number to utilise, considering that goals come in whole numbers, rather than partial scores. After all, have you ever seen a football team score four and a half goals in a match? Definitely not!
The decimal point is present to make it a 2-way rather than a 3-way market. This stop there being any potential for payouts on a tied result resulting in a stake refund. If the market was over 5 goals or under 5 goals then what happens if there are exactly 5 goals in the game, the bookie would need to refund the stake.
Looking at the over marker, the game in question needs to see at least 5 goals scored altogether for you to receive a payout for your bet. Those five or more goals can come from either team participating in a game. If a game finishes in a 5-0 outcome, then you still win on this market. At the same time, if it should end in a 4-1 result, you still win, because that still totals five goals.
If the outcome of a football match is 2-1, on the other hand, and you have wagered on the over 4.5 goals market, you lose, if you bet on under 4.5 goals you win. The same is true on the following results:
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
Each of those presents a result that is below five goals in total and would win if betting on under 4.5 goals. Anything above and beyond that provides you with a payout on the over 4.5 goals market.
When To Bet On Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Betting on this market is a simple option to go for at a sportsbook. Only two outcomes exist with it – win or lose. To add to that, the lines between earning a return and losing money aren’t blurry like they are with some other markets.
The number of games that witness five goals or more is quite low overall and you need to be quite diligent when deciding upon when to wager on over 4.5 goals. The only way to enhance your confidence in such a bet is by conducting proper research prior to a game taking place. Fortunately, because the market asks a lot of the match (that being five goals in total to be scored), you should look prominently at two aspects. Find out the abilities of both teams involved when it comes to scoring goals and see what their defence capabilities are like.
It better to bet on the over 4.5 goals market when teams with a strong level of attack compete against teams with bad defence. The more talented the team is, the more likely it is that they will score multiple goals.
If you are really confident a team will be dominat and on form on the day you could bet on just one team scoring over 4.5 goals. Several examples of this happening have gone down in the history books. For example:
- 2022-23 Premier League – Liverpool 9-0 Bournemouth
- 2022-23 Premier League – Manchester City 6-0 Nottingham Forest
- 2020-21 Premier League – Manchester United 9-0 Southampton
- 2020-21 Premier League – Chelsea 7-0 Norwich City
- 2009-10 Premier League – Tottenham Hotspur 9-1 Wigan Athletic
In all these instances, a bet on over 4.5 goals on the winning team would have provided a payout at decent odds. Several high-scoring games have occurred since the start of the 2010s, which is something to remember first. That’s largely due to a massive influx of money heading to teams in the Premier League, such as Manchester City and Liverpool, as examples. These teams have bought highly talented players for huge sums of money, which has seen them put on football clinics at times.
Don’t expect over 4.5 goals to be a market that pays out on a very regular basis, though. The average number of goals in a football game is much closer to 2.5, which is one reason why the over/under 2.5 goals market is the most popular of this type. Doing adequate research beforehand will dictate that it’s not frequently a popular option for many bettors.
The advice is to bet on over 4.5 goals in matches where a highly talented side is taking on a smaller, weaker team. Just ensure you have confidence in the wager before you place it.
Betting on under 4.5 goals is less common compared to betting on over. This is because generally the odds are very low due to most matches having under 5 goals on average. It can be useful in some situations. Let’s say England are playing Gibraltar in a friendly with the odds suggesting there will be over 4.5 goals. If you feel England may have an off day or Gibraltar are better than expected and you bet on under 4.5 goals this is an instance where the odds may be favourable.
