One of the most important aspects of finding value and understanding the bets you place is knowing how bookmakers work and where they lower the odds for your bets. The biggest way they do this is with something called related contingency.
In short, related contingency is where one element of your bet affects the others that you are placing. When this happens, you will not be allowed to place a regular double on the wager, instead, you will usually have to use a special bet on a market that has been created, which gives shorter odds that factor in how one market affects another.
If you were to try and place a straight double or accumulator bet on the various selections you have picked, the betting site would not allow you to do this, which is how you know you are trying to place a related contingency bet.
A Simple Example of a Related Contingency Bet
The most straightforward way of looking at related contingency is to talk about a football game and the impact of a player scoring in the game on the overall result at the end.
A double on Harry Kane to score anytime for Tottenham and Tottenham to win the game is classed as a related contingency. This is because if Harry Kane scores a goal, Tottenham are more likely to win the game because we know they already have one goal on the board.
You will not be able to place this bet; instead, you will have to use a market that combines goal scorers and the game’s outcome anytime. Here you will be able to back Kane to score and Tottenham to win as a fixed double at a set price, rather than the double price.
Betting Markets With Related Contingencies
With so many different betting markets now available for you to use, the number of markets that could cause related contingency problems for you are now as long as they have ever been.
The key rule to remember is this.
If you place a bet involving two or more elements of the same game, and one winning would increase or influence the chances of the others winning, the bet will be classed as a related contingency.
Goal scorers, team goals, time of goals, over/under goals, cards, corners, and trophy wins in the same season are all considered as markets that can involve related contingency, so you will be rejected when trying to place multiples on these.
Related Contingency on Outright Betting Markets
Somewhere else we see related contingency in place is with outright betting markets on teams to win competitions.
This is a very loose related contingency and something that bookmakers use to cover themselves, rather than based on genuine connections between the two bets. For this reason, sometimes, related contingency leads to poor value, so punters need to check out the odds on offer for these bets and work out if they are still worth placing or not.
When it comes to outright betting markets, winning trophies is where you will see this enforced.
You can back Manchester City to win the Premier League and Manchester City to win the FA Cup but cannot place a double. Instead, there will be a special market and price for Manchester City to win both the Premier League and FA Cup.
What the bookmakers argue is that by winning the Premier League, this confirms Manchester City are having a good season, and by winning the league, they are more likely to win other competitions, such as the FA Cup.
There is a case to be made that these are two completely separate competitions, and perhaps even the fact that Manchester City will put less focus on the FA Cup if they are trying to win the league, but bookmakers will only allow this bet at a special, lower price. This is where you need to look at the odds and determine if the bet is value or not.
Betting Markets Created to Avoid Related Contingency
Bookmakers have created a wide range of special betting markets, which put bets together in multiples but with a fixed price in order to allow people to place bets but avoid related contingency multiples.
For example, Harry Kane scoring first and Tottenham winning 2-0 is not available as a double. Bookmakers have created a market called the scorecast market, which offers this kind of bet at a set price.
Timecast, wincast and now anycast betting markets are all available to give people the option of putting together two outcomes in a game as a double at a fixed price. Again, the odds on these are shorter, so you must determine for yourself if there is still value in the bet when you see the special market price.
Bet Builders Offer Choice But Poor Value
One of the biggest ways that bookmakers have created to get around the related contingency betting rules is to offer bet builders. These are bets where you go through various markets and put together different selections across one game.
These are definitely related, so there is no other way of placing them. However, in terms of true odds, they offer very poor value, and this is something you just need to consider when you are looking at placing these bets.
For example, with a bet builder, you could place something like this:
- Liverpool to win
- Liverpool to score 2+ goals
- Mo Salah to score anytime
- Jordan Henderson to get an assist
Those four together can form a bet builder, even though every single one of them affects the other in some way. This is related contingency of the highest order, but thanks to a bet builder option, you can now place this bet.
However, with things as related as this, be very wary of the odds you are receiving, and work out whether you believe it to be value or not.
What Happens When One Element Is Void?
If you decide to go onto the special markets and combine various selections in the same game, it is important you understand how the rules work around them. The most common issue you will come across here is when a player doesn’t play that you have chosen to score or bag an assist.
The key to remember is that your player must be on the field and in with a chance of doing what you are backing them to do.
- If you back a player to score the first goal, and they are not on the field when the first goal is scored, this element of your bet is void
- If you back a player to score anytime, and they play in the second half but start as a sub, the bet stands
If you have an element of the bet that is void, the odds will be recalculated to determine your new payout figure. If this goes down to a single (for example, a player doesn’t play, and your bet is player to score and team to win), then you will be paid out at the single odds, which in this case is the team to win.
If you have more than two parts to the bet, you will be paid out on the odds based on the rest of the selections that take part, but these will be based on special prices due to related contingency still being in place across those elements.
In this example, if you bet on the following:
- Liverpool to win
- Liverpool to score 2+
- Mo Salah to score anytime
If Salah doesn’t play, there will be a special price for the other two elements because even though Salah is not playing, the others are still related to each other. If Liverpool score 2+, then they are more likely to win the game.
What You Need to Remember about Related Contingency
It is vital that you remember how related contingency works. Bookmakers have put this in place to protect themselves, and for this reason, the odds are always going to be shorter.
When you have found the market you need or chosen a bet builder, it is key to look at the odds you are being given. Some bets will offer very little value, while others you may be happy with. You will always receive shorter odds when using a special market due to the selections being related, you just need to understand and work out if you are still getting value or not.